In part I of our review of transport issues we focused on road
transport. As was noted, there are a
range of technical fixes- new fuels and new vehicles. With worries about air
pollution rising, the pace of change is dizzying, with a lot of new options
emerging e.g. hydrogen
fuel for cars: http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/04/energy-storage-hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars-creep-up-slowly-on-electrics.html In
the UK, ITM Power’s PEM electrolyser is already being used to
provide hydrogen derived from wind for some at a hydrogen powered vehicle
refueling centre off M1 Junction 33: www.itm-power.com/news-item/launch-of-m1-wind-hydrogen-refuelling-station And Shell is on the case too: http://www.edie.net/news/8/Shell-opens-its-first-UK-hydrogen-refuelling-station/ The UKs River Simple is also in the
hydrogen car game: http://www.edie.net/news/8/Hydrogen-fuel-cell-crowdfunding-scheme-exceeds--1m-target So of course is GM, who are also backing hydrogen/fuel cells for trucks. But some say hydrogen has limits as a vehicle fuel: http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hydrogen-economy Others say that methanol or
even ammonia (NH3) may be best http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hydrogen-economy-time-its-different-michael-van-baarle/ while some
look to synthetic fuels from waste https://waste-management-world.com/tag/waste
to Fuel
However, although a role may be played by biofuels and synfuels like
this, as we noted in Part I, electric vehicles are seen as the main way ahead
for now. With batteries getting cheaper, we have been bombarded with optimistic
prognoses. 160 million EVs globally by
2030, or even 530 million by 2040:
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/everyone-is-revising-electric-vehicle-forecasts-upward
and https://inhabitat.com/stanford-study-says-fossil-fueled-cars-will-vanish-in-8-years-as-big-oil-collapses/
Certainly, clever cross-links to wider energy system storage capacity
are possible, possibly making EVs even
more viable. UK Vehicle to Grid (V2G) battery links might add 11GW of storage capacity: http://www.edie.net/news/6/EVs-could-provide-11GW-grid-capacity-by-2030--research-claims
But not everyone is convinced
by EVs: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/for-electric-cars-to-gain-traction-big-problems-on-batteries-need-solving-j6j9mtgh7 Some say that the grid
system will not be up to delivering enough peak power for all the EV expected-
though views differ: http://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-much-power-will-uk-electric-vehicles-need If EV are only going to add 10% more
power demand by 2050, as has been
suggested, and EV charging can be
delayed to later in the night, then the grid may be able to cope: http://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-switch-to-electric-vehicles-would-add-just-10-per-cent-to-uk-power-demand
However, some point to Lithium resource
limits
if Li Ion battery powered EVs boom as expected
http://euanmearns.com/lithium-reserves-use-future-demand-and-price/There
could be other material limits too: https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/us-vulnerability-mammoth-battery-disconnect-rare-earth-supply/
Moreover, will EV’s, or any
sort of car, ever really be green? Few greens think so. Even the Mail had doubts: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5068585/Some-electric-cars-worse-polluters-petrol-diesel.html
Public transport is clearly
better in environmental terms. So we
should be focusing on trains buses and trams, and all the other arguably better ideas: http://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/cars-and-climate-change-decarbonising-passenger-road-transport
There are certainly some
cleaver technical fixes which can make public transport even greener. Several countries are
now using renewable electricity for powering trains: http://qz.com/691078/santiagos-subway-system-will-soon-be-powered-mostly-by-solar-and-wind-energy/
Some
are using wind-derived power http://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/10/dutch-trains-100-percent-wind-powered-ns
(Though
see this:http://euanmearns.com/do-the-netherlands-trains-really-run-on-100-wind-power/) Or
PV http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/10/solar-panel-research-power-trains-imperial-college-london-1010
Or Hydrogen http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-unveils-zero-emissions-train-only-emits-steam-lower-saxony-hydrogen-powered-a7391581.html
If using hydrogen from wind-to-gas plants it would be 100% green: http://truththeory.com/2016/11/03/germany-unveiled-worlds-first-hydrogen-powered-passenger-train-zero-emission/
Then there are trams for
cities: www.metro-magazine.com/blogpost/722658/the-evolution-of-streetcar-technology using PV solar http://www.climateactionprogramme.org/news/melbourne_trams_to_be_powered_by_solar_energy
with PV charging in
Brighton: http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/oct/08/brighton-solar-powered-buses-electric In Uganda: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/06/solar-powered-electric-bus-from-uganda/
And Iceland has been a pioneer of hydrogen powered buses. http://www.eltis.org/discover/case-studies/ectos-hydrogen-buses-reykjavik-iceland
and https://www.treehugger.com/cars/in-iceland-hydrogen-powered-buses-are-step-toward-oil-free-economy.html
While, as seems to be the way these
days, China is making a lot of progress in this area: https://medium.com/@cH2ange/china-homes-in-on-hydrogen-977b37ddcca9
It is also electrifying taxis:
http://themindunleashed.com/2017/03/beijing-china-replace-67000-gas-guzzling-taxis-electric-cars.html
However, all this means
getting people out of their private cars. And that may require wider changes,
in urban planning and much else- with walking and cycling still being the best
option of all! We need to rethink mobility. That becomes even clearer when we
looks at the other transport issues- ships and, especially, planes. Emissions
from the later continue to rise and as global trade booms, so do emissions from
shipping. We need a rethink about the costs of globalization and global mobility
and who pays them.
Most aviation fuel is untaxed at present, so demand keeps rising. Though
there are some partial technical fixes. Air transport can be greened to an extent.
For short haul flights, electric power is an option, assuming the battery power
come from renewable sources: http://www.vulcantothesky.org/news/934/82/Airbus-reveals-plans-for-the-E-Fan-X.html.
Easyjet say they will be flying electric planes within a decade: http://www.edie.net/news/6/EasyJet-says-it-could-be-flying-electric-planes-within-a-decade/ Norway has set
2040 target for all short haul electric planes: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/18/norway-aims-for-all-short-haul-flights-to-be-100-electric-by-2040
For
longer flights, biofuels are being looked at. See these US plans for bio-jet fuel: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/08/aviation-and-greenhouse-gas-reductions-a-role-for-renewable-jet-fuels.html
and this EU aviation bio-fuel review: http://www.insightenergy.org/system/publications/files/000/000/014/original/RREB_Biofuels_in_Aviation_Draft_Final.pdf
and this recent
trial with a 10% mustard seed blend, cutting emissions by 7%: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5329793/Qantas-uses-150-acres-mustard-seeds-biofuel-flight.html
Of course, as that report indicates, biofuels do have major land-use
implications, and, in most cases there will better uses for land than growing
airplane fuel, though there may be marginal
locations and waste streams that can be used. Costs are also an issue: http://euanmearns.com/lcoe-and-the-cost-of-synthetic-jet-fuel/ On that, a proper tax on
aviation fuel might help. If we must fly, we must pay. And in some contexts and
locations, flying, including by helicopter in urgent crisis situation, provides
the only viable access. But thinking laterally, PV powered airship may have a
role- for slow transport with good access for cargo/equipment delivery to remote,
undeveloped sites.
For ships, there are some using PV for some ancillary power and Norway
is looking to (green) hydrogen powered ships. Or just plug-in battery-electric
ferries using green power from the mains supply: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39478856
Wind augmented sailing is also being looked at, via kite towing of bulk
carriers: http://www.skysails.info/
Or using on-board vertical axis Flettner wind
rotors and the Magnus effect: http://www.theengineer.co.uk/issues/june-2015-online/rotor-sail-puts-new-spin-on-flettner-rotor/
and http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3006414/spinning-sail-rebooted-to-cut-fuel-and-make-ocean-tankers-greener
It
would certainly be good to see wind powered tankers while there is still some
oil or liquid gas to transport-and perhaps green syngas delivery from solar
project in desert areas in the future: https://theconversation.com/spinning-sail-technology-is-poised-to-bring-back-wind-powered-ships-74872
and
http://www.eti.co.uk/news/norsepowers-fuel-efficient-technology-expected-to-save-approximately-10-in-fuel-consumption-and-associated-emissions-on-109-647-dwt-product-tanker-vessel
Biofuels might also play a direct role for ships, including, in a nice
symmetry, algal crops grown at sea: http://bellona.org/projects/ocean-forest
However,
there is still a long way to go in all sectors: cars, planes and passenger
transport is are obviously big issues, but freight transport accounts for 42% of transport CO2 emissions,
so that needs more attention in the increasingly globalised economy. Though in all sectors technology can only
do so much. Even looking positively, IRENA only sees renewables supplying at
most 15% of overall global transport energy by 2030: https://irenanewsroom.org/2016/08/09/laying-the-route-to-sustainable-transport-by-2030/
We ought to do better than that, but progress is limited and patchy. For
road transport, there are some bright spots, at least in terms of enabling the technology
change. Iceland has been a pioneer in hydrogen: https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/affordable-clean-energy/1074-hydrogen-iceland-and-the-future-of-transport
Germany is seeking a ban on the purchase of new petrol/diesel cars after 2030. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-petrol-car-ban-no-combustion-diesel-vehicles-2030-a7354281.html
Norway, France and the Netherlands have similar plans. And now the UK too – but
not until 2040. But some say that unless these countries expand their
renewables a lot more than is planned (or even possible), it may be hard for
EVs to lead to reduced emissions: http://euanmearns.com/how-much-more-electricity-do-we-need-to-go-to-100-electric-vehicles/
That may be overly pessimistic, but it is clear that, given the limits
on biomass, phasing fossil fuel use out of all road transport fast, as well as
from power and heat supply, could be challenging. And if we want to also do it
for all the other transport modes, including aircraft, it will be even harder. We need to rethink
transport and mobility. For good overviews see http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/02
Concept of SUT and integrated land use planning.pdf and
www.iea.org/media/training/presentations/etw2015/transportpresentations/transport3/D.6.2_Making_sustainable_transport_happen.pdf
*For a more optimistic take on cars
(all electric by 2030!) see
Tony Seba's book ‘Clean Disruption of
Energy and Transportation' and this challenging presentation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM
And on the impact of
autonomous cars, which some say will reduce overall fuel usage, see this: http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences
